Journal article

Understanding south-east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming

B Timbal, S Fiddes, JR Brown

International Journal of Climatology | WILEY | Published : 2017

Abstract

South-Eastern Australia and, in particular the state of Victoria, has experienced record deficits of rainfall over the last 20 years, in which the cool part of the year from April to October has been most affected. This situation has created difficulties for water managers, farmers and fire services, with the need to provide more certainty about future climate trends becoming clear. The latest climate projections for South-Eastern Australia project an overall drying in the cool part of the year with little change in the rest of the year. Although this is in line with current trends, very large uncertainties are associated with these projections. In this study, this range of projections has b..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

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Funding Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. BT and SF contribution to this work was supported by the Victorian Climate Initiative (VicCI). JRB was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Programme, jointly funded by the Department of the Environment, the BoM and CSIRO. D. Jones and R. Colman (BoM) provided useful comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript.